Due to weaker investment performance, Bank Pekao has lowered its PKB forecast for 2016 to 2.7 percent from 3.1 percent. However, it has not changed its prognosis for 2017, which remains at 3.3 percent, based on an expectation of an upturn in investment next year.
“Incoming data and our short-term forecasts point to a further slowdown in economic growth, primarily in relation to investment, which will probably continue in Q4. This has led us to lower our investment forecast to -6 percent y/y in Q3 of 2016 (previously -2.5 percent y/y) and -3 percent y/y in Q4 of 2016 (previously +2 percent y/y). These are the main factors lowering GDP growth forecasts to 2.8 percent y/y in Q3 (previously 3.5 percent) and 2.5 percent in Q4 (3.3 percent previously). This in turn means a lower GDP growth forecast for the entire year 2016: currently we forecast 2.7 percent (previously 3.1 percent),” Bank Pekao stated in its report.