0:36 13 January 2022
We have a crash on the housing market
Poles have become scared of rising interest rates and are stopping buying flats. In the fourth quarter, they bought them by 14 percent less than three months before. This is an anomaly because for a decade it was at the end of the year that sales jumped up strongly.
Data on the decline in apartment sales relate to the largest listed developers, which are responsible for approx. 40 percent of the supply of apartments in the six largest Polish cities, emphasized the analysis team of the Pekao Brokerage House.
Currently, the reference rate is at the level of 2.25 percent, while in the third quarter it was still 0.1 percent. And this is not the end. Two weeks ago, analysts estimated that interest rates in 2022 could reach 3-3.5 percent. Today, after the December inflation reading at 8.6 percent it is said that we will reach 4 percent. This scenario is assumed by Bank Pekao, which believes that the ongoing cycle of rate hikes will end just in July. Moreover, the bank says it straightforwardly: rates will not return to pre-pandemic levels and will remain above 3 percent for many years.
This is not an isolated opinion. Ebury's analysts are also betting that rates will soon reach 4 percent, and interest rate futures (FRA) suggest that we will soon see WIBOR, on the basis of which Poles repay their loans, at the level of even 4.5 percent.
(bizblog)
