4Q does not look too optimistic: analysts
22:05
In September, the PMI index slightly increased to 50.8 points from 50.6 points recorded in August, research company Markit said. The pace of growth was definitely weaker than in July, which is not optimistic for the coming months.
"The pace of expansion, however, slowed down again from the July 31-month record and was very weak," said the IHS Markit in the report.
IHS Markit economist Trevor Balchin said the September survey results were not very optimistic. On the one hand, employment increased for the first time since June 2019, and Polish companies from the manufacturing sector were more optimistic about the increase in production in the coming 12 months. Backlogs fell at the slowest pace in almost two years, and producers raised their rates for the first time in six months. On the other hand, production and new orders showed a slowdown in growth, suggesting that the July economic recovery is already slowing down.
“The increase in Covid-19 infections in Europe and the restrictions imposed on economies in connection with the upcoming winter season mean that the fourth quarter of 2020 does not look too optimistic for the Polish industry, despite the fact that the producers' forecasts have improved," Balchin commented.
In turn, Bank Pekao analysts indicate that the Polish industry slowed down the pace of economic recovery despite a marked improvement in our main trading partner, Germany (preliminary PMI reading for German industry is 56.6 points).
