A little prayer for the left

Three months ago I predicted on my WBJ blog that things would get bad, but I did not think that they would get quite this bad. The latest opinion polls show that if Polish parliamentary elections were to be held now, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) could fail to obtain a single seat.

The crisis of the left is a phenomenon discernible throughout Europe. The British Labour Party has plummeted in the opinion polls and the socialists in Spain are doing worse and worse. President Sarkozy has deprived the French left of the centrist electorate and, in Germany, the SPD party is playing more and more of a supporting role in the Berlin political arena.

The waning of the left will have consequences. As it becomes enfeebled, so too does the vision of a Europe without frontiers. This was to be the embodiment of the post-nationalist conception of the European social and economic community, but instead the notion lies moribund in our continent.

Not like everywhere else

But in Poland the crisis of the left is not the result of a pan-European trend. Here the ideological map of the electorate is different and, for simplicity's sake, can be divided into two groups. The first group comprises the young and better educated, who do not fear social change, who value social and economic liberalism and the modernization it brings with it. This group primarily votes for the Civic Platform (PO) and the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL).

The second group of the Polish electorate is more fragmented. It can be indecisive and feels helpless in the face of economic change, is passive professionally, sometimes frustrated, aggressive, populist, ready to take protest to the streets.

It can also be ideologically fickle. Sometimes it links up with supporters of the radical Roman Catholic right, sometimes with populist farmers and sometimes with the left. This group is generally shrinking, but apart from this it also seems to be drifting away from SLD's brand of leftism for good. This second electoral group is generally represented by the Kaczyński twins' Law and Justice Party (PiS).

And this is the greatest paradox of the Polish left - that it is fighting for the same votes as the Kaczyńskis' right-wing Catholic party. The main practical difference is that the left would more likely dress its protesters in caps with rainbow flags, while the Kaczyńskis would have them brandishing crosses of gigantic proportions. Protesters from either party would shout the same slogans, however, calling for liberal economic changes to be blocked.

On the threshold of doom

SLD's worsening fortunes have coincided with a change in leadership. Wojciech Olejniczak, leader of the party since 2005, was replaced last spring by an equally young, but less media friendly, Grzegorz Napieralski. By the end of August, public opinion research centers were alarmed - support for SLD fell by half during that month, from 10 percent to five percent, the threshold necessary to join Parliament. 

What has really buried Napieralski? Apart from his poor image, votes in Parliament have also hurt. On several occasions, SLD has voted alongside the PiS party. Moreover, it has sided with PiS in key issues such as in the Media Law, effectively preventing the removal of PiS appointees from executive roles in the public media.

That has been too much even for SLD's own political apparatus. Enraged activists from all over Poland filled left-wing forums with blunt rhetoric, such as "What are you f***ing doing?" Other left-leaners - small businessmen, salesmen, managers of companies with a communist past - have been more reserved in their criticism. Many have declared, in short, that they will be voting for PO in the next election.

What remains for the Polish left? At this stage, little but prayers. However, keeping in mind SLD's anti-clerical character, perhaps the party would be better served by trying to reconnect with its electorate.

Joanna Wóycicka is the former head of the foreign sections of the Życie Warszawy and Życie newspapers and the former head of the foreign department at the Polish Press Agency (PAP).