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A slice of the PKO BP action

Analysts claim thousands of Polish investors dipping a toe into the share market could land big catches with the issue of private shares in PKO BP. Experts predict this army of investors may make tidy profits as share prices reach zł.17-20.

Disposal of the 30% stake in the bank is expected to provide the state budget with around zł.6 billion from privatization revenues.

Economists for Bank BGŻ brokerage house, which is handling the IPO, value PKO BP shares at zł.16-24.8, depending on the method used. With the discounted dividend method, they calculate the shares at zł.16-19 each, while using the comparative method, based on the projected Price/Earnings ratio, the shares could be valued at zł.23.4-24.8 each.

This means the State Treasury would collect anywhere between zł.4.8-7.4 billion. Treasury Minister Jacek Socha has publicly stated that his target is zł.6 billion. The official price range for the shares will be announced on October 21, and the actual price on November 3.

PKO BP is the unquestionable market leader in the banking sector in Poland. The institution posted a zł.1.22 billion net profit in 2003, nearly half of the total banking sector profits of zł.2.5 billion for last year.

Experts do not believe that any other bank could threaten PKO BP's position in the coming years. "Nobody has such a network and there are no signs that it could be created," said BRE Bank analyst Andrzej Powierża.

Powierża added that if rural areas prosper as expected, then PKO BP might further strengthen its position.

Meanwhile, PKO BP's management last week called on police to help control anticipated crowds during the first few days of the offer. (Poland A.M.)

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