All or nothing

by Mirko Kaupat

It is not very risky to state that Leszek Miller has only a few weeks left as prime minister, political observers say. Almost no one appears to believe that he will survive the European Union referendum on June 7-8. Should voters fail to produce a valid result, there will be no question that Miller's time is over.

And even if there is a great big Yes for Europe, he will likely have to resign. In fact, his rivals are preparing for this scenario, as Miller once announced that his political fate would depend on the success of the referendum. Now, with his popularity reaching all-time lows, he is withdrawing from this commitment, saying that the referendum is not at all a test for the government, but rather a decision about the country's future in the long term. That may be good for the referendum, but it's bad for Miller and his SLD cronies since there will be no way for them to profit from a positive outcome in the referendum.

Until the referendum, one would expect there would be a kind of generally accepted cease-fire within the SLD. But with only a week to go, the peace has now come to an end. It began last week when an SLD backbencher made public comments that Miller, who is also head of the SLD, should consider giving up either his position as party chief or his job as prime minister. Other SLD members, including vice chairman Andrzej Celiński, agreed.

Then President Aleksander Kwaśniewski entered the stage and continued his war with Miller by demanding the rebuilding of a majority government after the referendum. This was quite a tricky move since, without mentioning Miller's name or calling for his resignation, Kwaśniewski made it clear that there would be no room for the prime minister in his vision of a post-referendum government.

Miller proved some months ago that he is not capable of gathering a majority. And his potential coalition partners, the Peasants Party (PSL) and the Civic Platform (PO), made it clear again last week that they see no chance of cooperating with the prime minister.

So the preparations for the fight are ongoing, with the final battle to take place at the end of June during the SLD party congress. Nobody has declared their will to stand against Miller yet, but there are rumors that either economy and labor minister Jerzy Hausner or Sejm speaker Marek Borowski could become prime minister very soon after the referendum. The PSL has already declared its will to return to power sooner rather than later.

Miller seems to be the only one who wants him to keep his position, and he is determined to fight. In a radio interview he dismissed all speculations about leaving one of his posts. "All or nothing" is his motto now.