Analysts expect inflation to exceed 3.5% y/y in early 2020

The analysts expect inflation to exceed the upper limit from the central bank (NBP) target of 3.5 percent y/y at the beginning of 2020. The factors contributing to rising inflation may be the growth in the dynamics of energy and fuel prices, core inflation, and an increase in excise duties on alcohol and cigarettes. However, the second quarter of next year should bring a trend of gradual decline in the CPI inflation towards 2.5 percent y/y at the end of 2020, according to the economists' expectations.