Another strong increase in industrial production m/m, but expectations were higher
23:14
In July 2021, industrial production increased by 9.8 percent y/y and decreased by 3.9 percent compared to the previous month, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported.
Although this is still high dynamics, analysts expected an even better result. Expectations of specialists surveyed by PAP Biznes said that production would increase by 10.5 percent y/y and decrease by 3.5 percent per month. At the same time, GUS reported that seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 12.6 percent y/y and by 0.7 percent m/m in July.
"Slightly below forecasts, but we are still slightly above the long-term trend," Bank Pekao analysts commented on Twitter.
The dynamics of construction production were lower – its increase amounted to 3.9 percent y/y and 0.5 percent m/m. Meanwhile, the increase in industrial output prices turned out to be higher than expected, which indicates an increase in the costs of production enterprises. In July 2021, industrial production prices increased by 8.2 percent y/y, and in monthly terms grew by 1.2 percent.
"Some of this is rising oil prices. But prices are also rising very quickly in other sections," mBank analysts comment on Twitter.
According to the data from the GUS, an increase in products sold at constant prices was recorded in 27 out of 34 industrial sectors. The sales in the repair, maintenance, and installation of machinery and equipment department grew the most. However, the production of clothing, furniture, tobacco products as well as motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers decreased, and the strongest decline was recorded in the production of leather and leather goods.
