Autumn elections looming
The ruling coalition of Law and Justice (PiS), Self-defense (SO) and League of Polish Families (LPR) is officially over, after the series of scandals that had culminated over the summer came to a head. The Ministries previously controlled by SO and LPR members, including those of Transport, Construction, Agriculture and Education have now been taken over by PiS party politicians. Although PiS is the dominant party in the parliament, it finds itself with insufficient votes to govern alone.
In view of the political crises - which included SO leader Andrzej Lepper being accused of corruption and his counter-accusations that the government acted illegally in its investigation of him - President Lech Kaczyński met with Donald Tusk, the leader of the largest opposition party, PO, to discuss options. The leaders agreed that early elections in autumn are inevitable. However, since parliament is currently on vacation, no binding decisions on fresh elections have been made.
If the elections were to take place now, PO seems best placed to win. The party netted 32 percent support in a recent TNS OBOP poll. Still, that amount of support would not win them enough seats to govern alone, and PO would have to find a coalition partner. The two most probable alternatives seem to be PiS and the coalition Left and Democrats (LiD) but Civic Platform (PO), is shying away from making any declarations. "PO has adopted a strategy of appealing both to LiD and PiS at the same time," explained Sergiusz Trzeciak, an expert on political communication and the head of the Sobieski Institute, adding that whichever PO chooses, it faces losing elements of either the conservative- or liberal-leaning electorate.
Radosław Markowski, an expert from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences, believes that PO's strategy is too passive. "They still think that it is enough 'to be' and that their opponents will destroy themselves on their own. This is not the case anymore," he told WBJ.
The second most popular party in the polls, PiS, would also need to rethink its strategy if it wanted to win. "Since PiS has turned more to the radical and populist electorate, it will be a rational step for them to put some effort in attracting the center and showing a more liberal and rational face," said the Sobieski Institute's Trzeciak.
However, Markowski stressed that since the present political scene in the country is extremely unpredictable, a whole range of scenarios is probable. Indeed, with the decision on the dissolution of the Sejm not due to be made till September, anything could happen.
