Base inflation to drop to 10.5% in 2023 - NBP

Baseline inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to be 10.5% y/y in 2023, 6.1% in 2024, and 4% in 2025, according to long-term inflation projections publushed by the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

The projection indicates that baseline inflation will decrease gradually. Factors contributing to the decline include a slowdown in aggregate demand growth and a decrease in employment-related costs. The NBP also considers downward revisions in energy prices and a faster increase in food prices.

The projection, based on the NECMOD model, covers the period from Q2 2023 to Q4 2025, with data available until June 22, 2023.

Source: inwestycje