Bedtime stories
"But he has nothing on at all," said a little child at last. "Good heavens! Listen to the voice of an innocent child," said the father, and one whispered to the other what the child had said. "But he has nothing on at all," cried at last the whole people.
The Emperor's New Suit by Hans Christian Andersen (1837)
By the time this article appears we will have celebrated the 150th anniversary of the Charge of the Light Brigade, the 75th anniversary of the 1929 crash, the ending of the 40 days and 40 nights that I outlined previously, and we are about to know who will become the next Emperor of the World.
Irrespective of who is elected to the post, the fundamentals in the USA and most of the advanced capitalist economies are frightening. Unaccounted-for liabilities threaten the existence of social security and the health service. Huge government budget deficits, huge trade deficits, declining consumer confidence and phony unemployment numbers that fail to tell the real story of underemployment add to the mix.
Spiraling insurance costs, declining leading economic indicators, corporate earnings warnings and the exportation of manufacturing to individuals who are presently less valued but no less skilled or less intelligent point to the rebalance to come. Add to that the bubbles in financial and property assets, record-setting oil prices, and the mess in Iraq and Afghanistan, and you have an indication of just how fast the situation can unravel.
To better illustrate what is about to happen, I'll tell you a story.
Fill in the blank
A very successful [politician, managing director, analyst, investment manager or even an insurance salesman-you choose] was driving along a mountain road feeling at peace with the world. The sun was shining, the view into the valley below was awesome and inspiring and he realized just how fortunate he was. He had the car he'd always wanted, a beautiful home, a loving wife and healthy and adoring children-and he was rich. He felt at peace with himself and began to thank the Lord for his prosperity and good fortune.
Suddenly one of his front tires blew and his car began to skid over the edge of the road.
As the car began to fall into the valley below he managed to open the door and dive out. His right hand caught hold of a branch of a bush that was growing on a ledge about three meters below the road. As he looked down he could barely see his car as it smashed onto the rocks and burst into flames.
If you believe...
With no foothold, the man managed to hang on to the branch but just didn't have the strength to pull himself up. The ledge was sufficient for the roots of the bush but didn't seem to provide a good enough handhold in order for him to climb back up to the road. His arm was getting tired and he didn't know what to do. So he began to pray.
"Lord," he intoned, "please save me. You know that since I became a pillar of my community I donate 10 percent of my earnings to charity. Another 10 percent I give to the Church in order for them to proclaim your wisdom and mercy. My wife loves me and my children adore me and I am too young to die. I beseech you Lord, in the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Ghost, please save me."
All that he heard was the sound of the wind, which was increasing in ferocity, and he felt that his fingers were slipping as his grip began to weaken.
"Lord," he screamed, "listen to my plea. Please save me. And if you do I will give 20 percent of my earnings to charity and 20 percent to the Church and I will tell everyone that I meet just how merciful you are."
The sounds of the wind abated and a deep male voice whispered, "If you believe then let go of that branch."
As he looked up and down and sideways he realized that there was no one in sight and that the voice emerged from nowhere. He started to shiver with fear and strain.
"Please Lord," he intoned, "give me the strength to climb the three meters to the road so that I can be saved."
"If you believe," the deep voice boomed, "then let go of that branch!"
The ultimate test
"But Lord!" the man shrieked. "If I let go of the branch then I will fall 500 meters and, just like my car, my body will be splattered on the rocks. Please help me! Give me the strength to climb up the three meters onto the road."
"If you believe," the deep voice boomed louder, "let go of that branch!"
"Remember," the voice carried on, "remember when you first started. When your friends and your family thought you were a fool. You believed in yourself. You persevered. And slowly, day by day, things got better and you became richer. But it all began when you started to believe. Is that true?"
"Yes, Lord." he mumbled. "It was all a question of faith and belief when I first started. People did ridicule me. They did think I was a fool to try. But, day by day and hour by hour I proved them wrong and my riches increased."
"Well then," the voice intoned, "If you believe-if you truly believe-let go of that branch and you will be saved."
"But Lord," our hero muttered, "faith and belief do not counter the laws of gravity. If I let go of the branch then I am doomed to certain death. Please just give me the strength to climb up onto the road."
"Son, if you believe," the voice whispered, "Let go of that branch. You have a lovely and faithful wife; you have well-behaved and beautiful children. You are now financially secure. All this has resulted from your beliefs, from your convictions and from your dreams. Thoughts are more powerful than physical laws. They can shape, mould and circumvent those laws when the belief is strong enough. Just trust in me. LET GO OF THAT BRANCH AND YOU WILL BE SAVED!"
Our hero thought for a few minutes. He recalled the times when he was totally broke and hungry. He recalled the times that others ridiculed him for taking the course that he did. He understood just how much his faith and his belief kept him going and, with a sigh of resignation, he let go of the branch.
He fell 500 meters and his body was splattered on the rocks below. And the voice boomed: "SUCKER!"
The power of natural laws and the laws of the market will reassert themselves with a vengeance. Don't expect any mercy. Cycles repeat.
The Emperor's New Suit by Hans Christian Andersen (1837)
By the time this article appears we will have celebrated the 150th anniversary of the Charge of the Light Brigade, the 75th anniversary of the 1929 crash, the ending of the 40 days and 40 nights that I outlined previously, and we are about to know who will become the next Emperor of the World.
Irrespective of who is elected to the post, the fundamentals in the USA and most of the advanced capitalist economies are frightening. Unaccounted-for liabilities threaten the existence of social security and the health service. Huge government budget deficits, huge trade deficits, declining consumer confidence and phony unemployment numbers that fail to tell the real story of underemployment add to the mix.
Spiraling insurance costs, declining leading economic indicators, corporate earnings warnings and the exportation of manufacturing to individuals who are presently less valued but no less skilled or less intelligent point to the rebalance to come. Add to that the bubbles in financial and property assets, record-setting oil prices, and the mess in Iraq and Afghanistan, and you have an indication of just how fast the situation can unravel.
To better illustrate what is about to happen, I'll tell you a story.
Fill in the blank
A very successful [politician, managing director, analyst, investment manager or even an insurance salesman-you choose] was driving along a mountain road feeling at peace with the world. The sun was shining, the view into the valley below was awesome and inspiring and he realized just how fortunate he was. He had the car he'd always wanted, a beautiful home, a loving wife and healthy and adoring children-and he was rich. He felt at peace with himself and began to thank the Lord for his prosperity and good fortune.
Suddenly one of his front tires blew and his car began to skid over the edge of the road.
As the car began to fall into the valley below he managed to open the door and dive out. His right hand caught hold of a branch of a bush that was growing on a ledge about three meters below the road. As he looked down he could barely see his car as it smashed onto the rocks and burst into flames.
If you believe...
With no foothold, the man managed to hang on to the branch but just didn't have the strength to pull himself up. The ledge was sufficient for the roots of the bush but didn't seem to provide a good enough handhold in order for him to climb back up to the road. His arm was getting tired and he didn't know what to do. So he began to pray.
"Lord," he intoned, "please save me. You know that since I became a pillar of my community I donate 10 percent of my earnings to charity. Another 10 percent I give to the Church in order for them to proclaim your wisdom and mercy. My wife loves me and my children adore me and I am too young to die. I beseech you Lord, in the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Ghost, please save me."
All that he heard was the sound of the wind, which was increasing in ferocity, and he felt that his fingers were slipping as his grip began to weaken.
"Lord," he screamed, "listen to my plea. Please save me. And if you do I will give 20 percent of my earnings to charity and 20 percent to the Church and I will tell everyone that I meet just how merciful you are."
The sounds of the wind abated and a deep male voice whispered, "If you believe then let go of that branch."
As he looked up and down and sideways he realized that there was no one in sight and that the voice emerged from nowhere. He started to shiver with fear and strain.
"Please Lord," he intoned, "give me the strength to climb the three meters to the road so that I can be saved."
"If you believe," the deep voice boomed, "then let go of that branch!"
The ultimate test
"But Lord!" the man shrieked. "If I let go of the branch then I will fall 500 meters and, just like my car, my body will be splattered on the rocks. Please help me! Give me the strength to climb up the three meters onto the road."
"If you believe," the deep voice boomed louder, "let go of that branch!"
"Remember," the voice carried on, "remember when you first started. When your friends and your family thought you were a fool. You believed in yourself. You persevered. And slowly, day by day, things got better and you became richer. But it all began when you started to believe. Is that true?"
"Yes, Lord." he mumbled. "It was all a question of faith and belief when I first started. People did ridicule me. They did think I was a fool to try. But, day by day and hour by hour I proved them wrong and my riches increased."
"Well then," the voice intoned, "If you believe-if you truly believe-let go of that branch and you will be saved."
"But Lord," our hero muttered, "faith and belief do not counter the laws of gravity. If I let go of the branch then I am doomed to certain death. Please just give me the strength to climb up onto the road."
"Son, if you believe," the voice whispered, "Let go of that branch. You have a lovely and faithful wife; you have well-behaved and beautiful children. You are now financially secure. All this has resulted from your beliefs, from your convictions and from your dreams. Thoughts are more powerful than physical laws. They can shape, mould and circumvent those laws when the belief is strong enough. Just trust in me. LET GO OF THAT BRANCH AND YOU WILL BE SAVED!"
Our hero thought for a few minutes. He recalled the times when he was totally broke and hungry. He recalled the times that others ridiculed him for taking the course that he did. He understood just how much his faith and his belief kept him going and, with a sigh of resignation, he let go of the branch.
He fell 500 meters and his body was splattered on the rocks below. And the voice boomed: "SUCKER!"
The power of natural laws and the laws of the market will reassert themselves with a vengeance. Don't expect any mercy. Cycles repeat.
