BGK: economy will grow by 0.5% in 2023, 3% in 2024

Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) forecasts a 0.5% year-on-year growth for the Polish economy in the current year, with acceleration to 3% in the following year. The first half of the current year witnessed a negative GDP growth due to declining consumption, eroded disposable incomes, and the impact of a high base from the influx of Ukrainian refugees. Factors such as reduced domestic demand and disrupted supply chains negatively affected GDP, but strong investments and an improved trade balance provided a counterbalance. The BGK expects a positive annual GDP growth of 0.5% for the entire current year and 3.0% in the next year, supported by ongoing economic improvement and progressing deflation.

The report emphasizes that economic activity in the next year will hinge on internal demand, bolstered by additional fiscal stimuli supporting consumption. The bank anticipates a current account surplus of around 1% of GDP this year and a deficit of approximately -1% of GDP next year. The economic outlook for 2024 suggests a worsening net export contribution due to weak conditions in key export markets, posing risks to the global economy.

Source: inwestycje.pl