Black clouds gather over the Polish economy: Capital Economics
01:27
The Polish economy started this year well, but the war in neighboring Ukraine, which has already been going on for the second month, may have negative consequences for Poland, say economists from Capital Economics, a consulting company that analyzes the markets for investment funds and institutional investors. Experts expect the war in Ukraine to hit exports, disrupt the supply chain,s and increase inflation in the country. As in the case of many Central and Eastern European economies, the reasons for these events may be the sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.
Liam Peach, an emerging market economist at Capital Economics, noted that export-oriented sectors in Poland are growing stronger and that electricity and gas production and use are also growing.
"Polish goods exports to Russia are around 3 percent of GDP, and imports from Russia (mostly raw materials) will be severely disrupted, hitting Polish industry," Peach said.
The expert emphasized that a particular problem for the Polish economy may be inflation, which will reduce real incomes.
