Celebrating a reunited Europe
But concerns about growing populism and dangers of bad governance were clearly never far from the surface.
"Bad policies are easy to sell," said Leszek Balcerowicz, president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). "They are based on the natural forces of ignorance, envy and frustration. But good policies require a bit more effort." That is why, he said, it is crucial for pro-European and pro-reform countries to present a united front against the populists. Many participants shared his concern that political instability could derail the process of convergence with the established members.
"The destiny of Poland is now in the hands of your authorities and businesses," said Jean Lemierre, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). "But you need to work very hard."
Lemierre was optimistic that the country, along with the other entrants, could "export dynamism" to the older member states, which have been struggling to meet the economic development criteria set out in the so-called Lisbon Agenda of 2000. That agenda envisaged Europe becoming the most competitive economy in the world by 2010, but near the halfway point, it is already clear that most of the goals, ranging from boosting employment to improving innovation and entrepreneurship, are far from being met.
Certainly, many participants expect the ten new members to inject dynamism into the process, with Leif Pagrotsky, the Swedish minister of trade and industry, saying that they tend to have younger politicians and younger business people, who are, therefore, "more likely to be early adopters of new ways of thinking and doing things." But Pagrotsky's comment met with skepticism from those participants familiar with the situation in this country.
"I can understand people hopping mad about the EU, when they realize that it is not the answer to all problems," said Effe Elleman-Jensen, chairman of the Baltic Development Forum. That is why it is crucial that the pro-Europe parties send a clear message as to what is possible and necessary, he added. He also stressed that it was crucial for Poland to stand its ground in negotiations on the European forum, though he also said that the country must realize the need for compromise.
"I expect Poland to get a lot of bruises and be a pain in the neck, but I think on the whole it will be a positive force," he concluded. The voices more skeptical about the country's tough negotiating tactics (which helped derail the European constitution) were conspicuous by their absence from the public debate. But in private, some distinguished foreign participants admitted that the Poles have given themselves a bad name in Brussels, which could have an effect on the country's negotiating position in the future.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's recent remarks that lower tax rates in some new member states should be offset by structural aid cuts were studiously avoided, as the participants seemed keen to concentrate on the positives. But Laurens Jan Brinkhorst, the Dutch economic affairs minister, said that debate on these issues should be pursued with vigor. As some Polish participants pointed out, the German leader's remarks suggested that, instead of "exporting dynamism and zeal for reform," the new members could instead fall foul of the largest EU members' inability to go through with tough reforms. These concerns were voiced by Tomasz Sielicki, president of software integrator ComputerLand, who recently went on record as saying that he was "worried about entering the EU in the current climate."
Leszek Balcerowicz dismissed these concerns, stressing the need to combat anti-reformist forces at home. Even Germany has realized the need for reform, albeit belatedly, and there is no reason to think that it will act as a brake on change, the NBP's president explained. Rather than worrying about external opinion, the country should work hard to win over public opinion regarding the cause for tough, but necessary, measures.
In addition to populism, which, in President Aleksander Kwaśniewski's opinion, attracts about 30 percent of voters, the most commonly voiced concern was the low quality of the country's political elites and of the middle-rank administration. These well-worn problems were, however, relegated to unofficial conversations.
Another area of concern is the recent suggestion that as much as five percent of the country's population could emigrate to the richer western European countries over the next 15 years. While the figure does not imply a 'swamping' of western Europe by economic migrants (so commonly cited as a threat in many countries), it could mean that the new members might suffer from a brain drain on a scale that would hamper growth, says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think-tank that conducted the study.
"If Polish engineers come to work in London as taxi drivers, that will improve productivity in the UK, but it could lead to skills shortages in the poorer Central European countries," she explained. The danger is that such a brain drain could prove wasteful to the EU as a whole, as it would erode one of the main advantages that the new member states enjoy over at least some of the older members, namely, a relatively well-skilled and educated workforce.
Education was one of the most important points discussed at the summit as an advantage this country and its neighbors enjoy. However, emigration by the most entrepreneurial and dynamic young people could take that advantage away, economists believe.
But that is another area where commentators see the internal political dynamic as crucial. The EBRD's Lemierre points out that the debate on immigration is mostly political, since the economic forces likely to bring it about have been in place for some time. From an economic point of view, it has already happened, he says.
Leszek Balcerowicz, on the other hand, was keen to stress the advantages of labor mobility, saying the continent and the country need more, rather than less, of it.
"So long as people are not forced out by bad governance, I do not see any dangers," Balcerowicz said, once again reiterating what seems to have been the leitmotif of the summit: that the opportunity of EU membership could easily be wasted, unless decisive action is taken by politicians and business people alike.
"Bad policies are easy to sell," said Leszek Balcerowicz, president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). "They are based on the natural forces of ignorance, envy and frustration. But good policies require a bit more effort." That is why, he said, it is crucial for pro-European and pro-reform countries to present a united front against the populists. Many participants shared his concern that political instability could derail the process of convergence with the established members.
"The destiny of Poland is now in the hands of your authorities and businesses," said Jean Lemierre, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). "But you need to work very hard."
Lemierre was optimistic that the country, along with the other entrants, could "export dynamism" to the older member states, which have been struggling to meet the economic development criteria set out in the so-called Lisbon Agenda of 2000. That agenda envisaged Europe becoming the most competitive economy in the world by 2010, but near the halfway point, it is already clear that most of the goals, ranging from boosting employment to improving innovation and entrepreneurship, are far from being met.
Certainly, many participants expect the ten new members to inject dynamism into the process, with Leif Pagrotsky, the Swedish minister of trade and industry, saying that they tend to have younger politicians and younger business people, who are, therefore, "more likely to be early adopters of new ways of thinking and doing things." But Pagrotsky's comment met with skepticism from those participants familiar with the situation in this country.
"I can understand people hopping mad about the EU, when they realize that it is not the answer to all problems," said Effe Elleman-Jensen, chairman of the Baltic Development Forum. That is why it is crucial that the pro-Europe parties send a clear message as to what is possible and necessary, he added. He also stressed that it was crucial for Poland to stand its ground in negotiations on the European forum, though he also said that the country must realize the need for compromise.
"I expect Poland to get a lot of bruises and be a pain in the neck, but I think on the whole it will be a positive force," he concluded. The voices more skeptical about the country's tough negotiating tactics (which helped derail the European constitution) were conspicuous by their absence from the public debate. But in private, some distinguished foreign participants admitted that the Poles have given themselves a bad name in Brussels, which could have an effect on the country's negotiating position in the future.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's recent remarks that lower tax rates in some new member states should be offset by structural aid cuts were studiously avoided, as the participants seemed keen to concentrate on the positives. But Laurens Jan Brinkhorst, the Dutch economic affairs minister, said that debate on these issues should be pursued with vigor. As some Polish participants pointed out, the German leader's remarks suggested that, instead of "exporting dynamism and zeal for reform," the new members could instead fall foul of the largest EU members' inability to go through with tough reforms. These concerns were voiced by Tomasz Sielicki, president of software integrator ComputerLand, who recently went on record as saying that he was "worried about entering the EU in the current climate."
Leszek Balcerowicz dismissed these concerns, stressing the need to combat anti-reformist forces at home. Even Germany has realized the need for reform, albeit belatedly, and there is no reason to think that it will act as a brake on change, the NBP's president explained. Rather than worrying about external opinion, the country should work hard to win over public opinion regarding the cause for tough, but necessary, measures.
In addition to populism, which, in President Aleksander Kwaśniewski's opinion, attracts about 30 percent of voters, the most commonly voiced concern was the low quality of the country's political elites and of the middle-rank administration. These well-worn problems were, however, relegated to unofficial conversations.
Another area of concern is the recent suggestion that as much as five percent of the country's population could emigrate to the richer western European countries over the next 15 years. While the figure does not imply a 'swamping' of western Europe by economic migrants (so commonly cited as a threat in many countries), it could mean that the new members might suffer from a brain drain on a scale that would hamper growth, says Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, a London-based think-tank that conducted the study.
"If Polish engineers come to work in London as taxi drivers, that will improve productivity in the UK, but it could lead to skills shortages in the poorer Central European countries," she explained. The danger is that such a brain drain could prove wasteful to the EU as a whole, as it would erode one of the main advantages that the new member states enjoy over at least some of the older members, namely, a relatively well-skilled and educated workforce.
Education was one of the most important points discussed at the summit as an advantage this country and its neighbors enjoy. However, emigration by the most entrepreneurial and dynamic young people could take that advantage away, economists believe.
But that is another area where commentators see the internal political dynamic as crucial. The EBRD's Lemierre points out that the debate on immigration is mostly political, since the economic forces likely to bring it about have been in place for some time. From an economic point of view, it has already happened, he says.
Leszek Balcerowicz, on the other hand, was keen to stress the advantages of labor mobility, saying the continent and the country need more, rather than less, of it.
"So long as people are not forced out by bad governance, I do not see any dangers," Balcerowicz said, once again reiterating what seems to have been the leitmotif of the summit: that the opportunity of EU membership could easily be wasted, unless decisive action is taken by politicians and business people alike.
