Chill winds blowing
It seems that Polish-Russian relations haven't been chillier at any time over the last 16 years than they are currently. The ban on Polish food is still in place and has fed a greater conflict, leading Poland to veto negotiations over a new EU-Russia agreement. PKN Orlen's acquisition of the Mazeikiu refinery wasn't warmly received in Russia and a sudden 'renovation' of the pipeline supplying the refinery soon followed.
Despite the fact that the ruling Polish government is seen as nationalist and anti-Russian, Dr Sławomir Dębski, the head of the research and analysis office at the Polish Institute for National Affairs, doesn't blame it for the frosty relations between the two countries.
"When relations between a small and a large country go [sour], the larger state is to a greater extent responsible for the state of the relations," he claims. "Even if the Polish government was composed of geniuses, they wouldn't be able to do much if Russia showed no will and initiative for change."
With regard to the Baltic pipeline and the Mazeikiu refinery, Dębski claims that the dissonance between Poland and Russia is natural, resulting from the fact that Poland is an independent state carrying out its own economic, security and foreign policies. He thinks that even if the relations were warmer, those differences would still exist. "However, [these problems] could be solved in diplomatic offices rather than in the media or on the international forum," Dębski claims.
The bilateral conflict over the Russian meat ban has already contributed to a wider cooling of EU-Russia relations, with Russia likely to impose a ban on all EU meat products from January 1, 2007. Dębski points out that the current fracas has more to do with the EU's methods when handling relations with Moscow than with the meat ban itself. "Nevertheless, for over a year Poland hasn't been able to solve the problem on bilateral terms," Dębski sums up.
On the other hand, this year saw an increase in diplomatic contact, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visiting Warsaw and his Polish counterpart, Anna Fotyga, as well as the Deputy Foreign Minister, Paweł Kowal, making trips to Moscow. However, no presidential palm-pressing took place and, moreover, none is unexpected in 2007. Dębski isn't sure whether Poland should pursue a meeting between Kaczyński and Putin, though, as "the Russian President's term is coming to an end." Although he thinks that a visit between presidents would be a good thing, it isn't exactly the "most burning issue. Perhaps Poland should start investing in a new [Russian] president," adds Dębski.
As for 2007's prospects, Dębski avers that everything is in the stronger partner's hands. He is fairly sure that the Polish government does have a genuine will to improve relations with Russia, albeit without giving up its strategic goals and interests. "The chances for change lie in Moscow," he underlines.
