Church may not sway voters
By Aleksander Nowacki
A controversial priest of the Catholic Church - one of the main pillars of the country's anti-European Union camp - appears to be wavering on his euroskeptic stance, though some observers are doubtful of the effect that his position will have on voters as the accession referendum approaches.
Tadeusz Rydzyk, director of Radio Maryja and the leader of the No campaign, has hinted at withdrawing his objection to membership for the first time, following Pope John Paul II's unequivocal statement last month supporting union membership.
"The EU may not be heaven, but it is not hell," Father Rydzyk said on his staunchly anti-EU radio station. "It is a purgatory. Perhaps we have to go through the purgatory."
Yet some observers are skeptical that his words will affect the actual vote. According to Father Bogusław Trzeciak, the adviser on the EU at the Polish Bishops Conference, this is not the first time that Rydzyk has promised to adapt his stance to that of the Church hierarchy. Moreover, Trzeciak said that Radio Maryja has not, in fact, substantially changed its tack despite Rydzyk's statement.
Public opinion polls show that Radio Maryja can sway the votes of some 7%-10% of the populace, who mainly live in rural areas or small towns and have low education levels. The station is often their only source of information on politics, as they are mistrustful of what they view as official propaganda spread by other media. Therefore, it is unclear if the pope's words reached them in the last weeks of the referendum campaign.
"Even if Father Rydzyk's U-turn was genuine, it could not sway some of the voters; they would simply decide he was a traitor," said Jacek Kucharczyk, director of the Institute of Public Affairs and co-author of a report on priests and the EU.
Kucharczyk pointed out that there is a small band of hard-core EU opponents whose reasons for opposition are ingrained in their general fear of the outside world. No arguments would possibly change their minds, he said.
But the anti-accession camp has more than two facets. Whereas Radio Maryja on principle opposes the EU as promoting homosexuality, abortion and the destruction of national and Catholic values, there is also a more pragmatic stance adopted by the Samoobrona party and its charismatic leader, Andrzej Lepper.
Lepper, who draws his support from the agricultural population - the only group in the country whose majority opposes EU accession - says that he supports membership as an idea. Samoobrona, however, is vocal in its opposition to the accession terms negotiated by the Miller government.
"Even other party politicians admit that unemployment will go up by some 2 million," said Sławomir Izdebski, a senator who is one of Samoobrona's leaders.
He added that the agricultural production quotas negotiated by the government with the EU would limit the country's production growth and thus contribute to unemployment. Instead, professionals in each sector should have negotiated their own terms, he said.
According to Kucharczyk, however, this argument reflects a general conviction very deeply ingrained in the rural populace that the elite have their own interests at heart and that they oppose what's really beneficial for the nation.
"But this sort of an argument will not make many people vote against (EU accession)," Kucharczyk said. "Rather, Samoobrona supporters will abstain from voting."
