CLI for Poland in May fell by 0.07% y/y
20:25
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Poland in May fell by 0.07 percent y/y, while in m/m terms, it decreased by 0.12 percent and amounted to 100.5points, as the OECD reported. The 100.00 point level marks the long-term average of the index.
According to the OECD, a rising CLI above 100 points indicates an expansion in the economy, a falling CLI above the 100-point level indicates a downturn, a CLI in a downtrend and below 100 points indicates a slowdown and a rising CLI that is below the 100 point level indicates a recovery in the economy. The CLI is ahead of business cycles, the OECD's intention is for the offset to be 6-9 months.
The Composite Leading Indicator is an indicator prepared by OECD. It is intended to provide an early indication of turning points in a country's business cycle, but, as the OECD stipulates, not for quantitative forecasting.
The OECD selects the key components of the index for each country separately. In the case of Poland, the following components are taken into account: the real effective exchange rate, the 3M WIBOR rate, as well as the economic situation in manufacturing, the number of job offers, and the dynamics of coal production as reported by GUS.
