CLI for Poland up by 1.52% y/y in October

Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Poland rose by 1.52 percent y/y 0.52 percent m/m in October and amounted to 99.40 points, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported. Level 100.00 points is the long-term average of the index.

According to OECD, the growing CLI of over 100 points means expansion of the economy, falling CLI over 100 points means a downturn, CLI in a downtrend and below 100 points means a slowdown, and the increasing CLI below the level of 100 points means recovery in the economy. CLI is ahead of the business cycles, the OECD intends the shift to be 6-9 months.

The Composite Leading Indicator is an indicator prepared by the OECD. It is intended to be used for early identification of turning points in the business cycle in a given country, but, as the OECD claims, not for quantitative forecasts.

OECD selects the key components of the index separately for each country. In the case of Poland, the following factors are taken into account: the real effective exchange rate, the WIBOR 3M rate, and also provided by the Central Statistical Office: the economic situation in the processing industry, number of job offers, and coal production dynamics. 

(PAP)