Commission paints bright economic picture for 2005
Analysts have raised the GDP prognosis to 5.8 percent in 2004 and 4.9 percent next year in their autumn report. The new forecasts are up from springtime projections of 4.6 percent for this year and 4.8 for 2005.
Government economists expect growth of 5.7 percent in 2004 and 5.0 percent in 2005, however, they admit erring on the side of caution.
The expected boom follows markedly sluggish progress in 2001 and 2002. The bounce started to speed up towards the end of 2003 and at the beginning of 2004, with real GDP growth reaching 6.5 percent in the first half of this year.
However, the Commission expects that this growth will abate over the next two years, because both fiscal and monetary stimuli seem to be disappearing too. This prognosis takes into consideration the increase of interest rates introduced by the National Bank of Poland in order to fight the growing inflation.
Considering the expected moderate strengthening of the złoty in relation to the euro, monetary conditions appear to be less advantageous in the forthcoming months and years, whereas the long postponed fiscal adjustment is to begin in 2005.
Growth will be accelerated by domestic demand and accompanied by individual consumption and a gradual increase in investment expenditure.
The Commission expects employment to increase next year. However, in the light of deeply rooted problems on the job market, this growth will not be sufficient enough to cause a considerable decrease in unemployment. (ISB, J.T.)
Government economists expect growth of 5.7 percent in 2004 and 5.0 percent in 2005, however, they admit erring on the side of caution.
The expected boom follows markedly sluggish progress in 2001 and 2002. The bounce started to speed up towards the end of 2003 and at the beginning of 2004, with real GDP growth reaching 6.5 percent in the first half of this year.
However, the Commission expects that this growth will abate over the next two years, because both fiscal and monetary stimuli seem to be disappearing too. This prognosis takes into consideration the increase of interest rates introduced by the National Bank of Poland in order to fight the growing inflation.
Considering the expected moderate strengthening of the złoty in relation to the euro, monetary conditions appear to be less advantageous in the forthcoming months and years, whereas the long postponed fiscal adjustment is to begin in 2005.
Growth will be accelerated by domestic demand and accompanied by individual consumption and a gradual increase in investment expenditure.
The Commission expects employment to increase next year. However, in the light of deeply rooted problems on the job market, this growth will not be sufficient enough to cause a considerable decrease in unemployment. (ISB, J.T.)
