Could it happen here?
The destruction wrought by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar - with estimates topping 100,000 dead - captured the world's attention last week. As WBJ went to press, relief organizations were doing their best to help, despite strong resistance by the infamously mistrustful Burmese military regime.
The tragedy is geographically removed from Poland, making it seem distant in the mind. Myanmar's reputation as an insular backwater also fosters this mental disconnect. But a similar disaster could befall any nation, at any time, and Poland is no exception.
While Poland is unlikely to suffer a Cyclone Nargis or Hurricane Katrina-style catastrophe, any number of natural or man-made disasters could conceivably befall the country. Terrorists could strike, for example, or Lithuania's Ignalina nuclear reactor could explode.
The real question, then: what are the most likely threats and how ready is Poland to deal with them?
The threat from nature
Natural disasters do occur in Poland, although on a significantly lesser scale than that of the Myanmar tragedy. Freak weather - as opposed to earthquakes, for example - is the chief culprit and has become increasingly common in the recent years.
"Anomalous weather occurred in the past, but has been taking place more often recently due to climate change," said Dr Magdalena Kuchcik of the department of geo-ecology and climatology at the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN). She listed droughts, heat spells, floods and tornadoes as key threats. According to Kuchcik, such incidents will continue to occur as climate change leads to changing weather patterns.
These phenomena have the potential to handicap the functioning of the state, as an unexpectedly heavy snowfall in Zachodniopomorskie voivodship proved in early April. The wet, heavy snow, unusual for the region at that time of year, caused the worst blackout in Poland since the Second World War. Szczecin, the seventh-most populous city in Poland, and numerous other towns and villages nearby were paralyzed, leaving thousands of people without electricity for up to several days in some areas.
The country has seen worse as well, including 1997's massive flood in Lower Silesia voivodship and a sudden storm which damaged 12,000 ha of forest in the Mazury district in 2002, to mention just two.
According to Marek Madej, an expert on security and terrorism from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), freak weather is unlikely to destabilize the state. It could, however, degrade Poles' quality of life, which could in turn undermine the state's security.
Madej stressed that the state needed to be proactive in dealing with weather-related catastrophes. "The state should be responsible and determined in its efforts to fight climate change," he concluded.
The threat of terrorism
Terrorism is another potential source of disaster, although experts interviewed by WBJ commented that Poland is a less attractive target for terrorists than Israel or the UK, for example.
"It is more strategically beneficial for terrorists to hit Iraq or Afghanistan than Poland," said Krzysztof Liedel, the director of the Center for Terrorism Research at Collegium Civitas.
The likelihood of radical Islamic terrorists carrying out an attack is diminished in part by the relatively homogeneous ethnic structure of Poland's population - for better or worse, the average Islamic extremist would stick out more in Poland than in England or Spain, for example. There is also little evidence of homegrown radicalism.
"The Muslim community in Poland is assimilated and functions very well in society," PISM's Madej said. He added that far-right, far-left and national liberation movements were just as unlikely to commit acts of terrorism.
At the same time, Poland has a number of reasons to remain vigilant, not least of which is the presence of Polish troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The country's high-profile support for the United States has also made it a target.
Experts noted that the situation on the international stage could change in the future, making Poland a more attractive mark. Terrorist attacks could also come from less likely sources, such as radical anti-globalists, said Madej. Mass events like the Euro 2012 soccer championships increase the risk of an attack as well, the experts added.
Who is keeping us safe?
In Poland, the Ministry of Interior and Administration is responsible for coordinating and managing the organizations responsible for counteracting threats and dealing with disasters. Anti-terrorist activities are carried out on two levels: the strategic level, where the Interior Ministry plays the key role; and the executive level, where work is divided between the Interior Ministry, the Internal Security Agency, the Foreign Intelligence Agency, the military and a few organizations subordinate to the Ministry of Finance.
The Interior Ministry is also responsible for coping with element disasters and one of the key bodies is the Center for Crisis Management (Centrum Zarządzania Kryzysowego), a network of institutions which extends from the national to the local level.
A separate body responsible for coordinating institutions involved in the fight against terrorism, the Inter-ministerial Terrorist Threat Team (Międzyresortowy Zespół ds Zagrożen Terrorystycznych), was created in October 2006.
Proactive, not reactive
Experts agreed that some institutions were well prepared, but that the overall system for crisis management is far from perfect and much needs to be done to improve it.
In order to effectively prepare the state, a coherent system for coordination needs to be established and more preventative measures need to be implemented. "Right now most of our institutions are reactive, while the global trend is to develop proactive prevention systems," Liedel said.
Zbigniew Pluciak, an anti-terrorism expert, pyrotechnician and coach at the government's Center for Rescue-Defense Training (Centrum Szkolenia Ratunkowo-Obronnego, CSRO) also stressed that the government needs to take a proactive approach, particularly in regard to Euro 2012.
"The construction of the national stadium in Warsaw has spurred heated discussions and a series of committees have been created, for example. But precious little is being said about anti-terrorist safety," he said.
Pluciak added that management changes in various institutions had hindered the coordination of work between them, as new staff often abandoned their predecessors' policies. This high staff turnover is especially damaging for Poland's readiness, because crisis intervention requires close cooperation between many services - if one institution's procedures change, the other relevant organizations need to adjust, a process that takes time.
Lack of experience
Poland is fortunate not to have experienced tragedies such as those in London or Madrid, but at the same time this means that it lacks experience in responding to terrorist threats. This concerns first response efforts as well as legal procedures - at present there are no special mechanisms for dealing with terrorist suspects.
"We have the same legal tools for dealing with terrorists as for dealing with thieves," said Liedel from the Center for Terrorism Research's.
Preparations to cope with terrorism are also poor throughout society at large, and the problem is visible in numerous public institutions and schools. "Many people think that if they have been taught how to behave in the case of a fire alarm, they can cope with bomb attacks too. But these two situations require totally different behavior," CSRO's Pluciak said.
Many people also take their knowledge of terrorist attacks from action movies, the content of which is far from reality. "Most children in Polish schools would be defenseless in the case of a terrorist attack," Pluciak said. In contrast, the authorities in many other countries organize alarm drills to keep society alert.
Even the few disasters which Poland has experienced have evidently not left a strong cautionary impression, PAN's Kuchcik said. "Houses are still built in those areas where the [1997] flood took place," she noted.
Never 100-percent secure
Awareness of disaster preparation has gradually improved over the last several years, Pluciak said. He himself was responsible for the creation of a set of procedures for dealing with bomb attacks, based on international experiences, and the number of businesses and institutions implementing the procedures is growing.
"After a training we organized at a hypermarket, their evacuation time decreased from two and a half hours to 10 minutes," Pluciak said.
PAN's Kuchcik added that extreme-weather communication and warning systems have developed considerably. Other experts stressed that the last few years had brought significant improvement in Poland's numerous crisis management institutions and that increased international cooperation had been one of the factors.
"A lot remains to be done, but we should also be aware that we have learned a lot. Many people have been trained and educated," Pluciak said.
The crisis management system remains fractured, but the government has taken steps to create a unified crisis management system in recent years. The Interior Ministry is working to create a Governmental Security Center (Rządowe Centrum Bezpieczeństwa), for example, an institution whose purpose will be to monitor potential threats and prepare for crises.
The Ministry is also carrying out a E505 (zł.1,727) million plan to protect against flooding from the Oder River and similar steps are being prepared with regard to the Vistula River.
The experts stressed, however, that although Poland's crisis management bodies are improving every year, 100-percent security is never possible.
