CPI to increase by 3.1 points without energy price freeze in H2 2024 - PKO

If the law freezing electricity, gas, and heat prices is not extended into the second half of 2024, analysts from PKO Bank Polski estimate that consumer price inflation (CPI) during that period could increase by 3.1 percentage points, reaching an average of 8.2% y/y instead of the expected 5.1%. Recent approvals for 2024 tariffs showed reductions in electricity and gas prices, but these are still expected to be higher than the effective prices paid by households due to the price freeze.

The recent amendment extending the freeze for the first half of 2024 may mitigate this impact if further extended.

Source: inwestycje.pl