Crucial climate summit
The rich countries of the world, which have long clamored for global cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, are unlikely to push hard this year as their economies crumble around them. And the developing and emerging market countries, seeing their normally holier-than-thou brethren give up the proverbial ghost, are unlikely to care much.
All in all, it is a bleak time for anyone who cares about the long-term fight against climate change.
In the short term, the event will undoubtedly be a success, at least for Poland. The horde of UN functionaries converging on Poznań will pump plenty of money into the local economy during their two-week stay. And there will be a lot of great photo opportunities on December 11 and 12, the "high-level segment" of the conference, when the politicians arrive to claim credit for whatever work has been done.
But the question is whether the conference attendees will be able to achieve even the already modest goal of creating a workable framework for next year's conference. This is extremely important since the 2009 event in Copenhagen is where world governments need to hammer out a new climate agreement for the post-2012 period. The current commitment period for Kyoto Protocol signatories ends in 2012.
Protocol half-empty
There are those who claim Kyoto has been a massive failure. The recalcitrance of the United States under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush certainly hasn't helped, especially since the US - together with China - is a top emitter. Only 36 nations, including Poland, have ratified it and are legally bound to cut emissions.
On the brighter side, that number comprises 25 countries of the EU-27 bloc, and only Spain, Italy and Denmark are unlikely to meet their 2010 Kyoto targets. This is where the Kyoto cynic would note, however, that the main reason many of these countries will meet their targets is because of the economic meltdown experienced by CEE countries in the 1990s.
Protocol half-full
Whether or not you see the Kyoto treaty as a failure is ultimately a matter of perspective. Not all the objectives will be met, but it's important that a global effort to address climate change is being made.
For the present, the all-consuming fears associated with the global financial crisis mean national governments and business leaders will be loath to agree to stringent emissions cuts. This may not matter, however, since emissions will naturally drop as a consequence of global economic contraction. In this way, the Kyoto Protocol may turn out a success, at least in part, and one achieved despite world leaders' best efforts.
But the work being done this week and next remains crucial if the fight against climate change is to continue on the supra-national level. The groundwork for the Copenhagen meeting needs to be laid now. After all, it would be a bitter irony if all that came of the conference were hot air.
