Crystal ball

The sector structure of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) is to a large extent representative of the entire Polish economy, and according to IBnGR experts, WSE indices are quite dependable markers of the general economic situation.

"The similarities in the sector structure makes the correlation between the macroeconomic cycles and WSE indices even tighter. By observing the tendencies on the WSE, one can quite accurately anticipate macroeconomic changes," said Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz, IBnGR's deputy president, at a conference.

The striking similarities in the evolution of both cycles can be observed in many countries and are best visible in the United States. Wyżnikiewicz believes they will probably deepen in Poland, as the stock market is still rather young compared with Western bourses.

IBnGR's report also stressed that efficiency in listed companies is much higher than in unlisted firms. In 2004, the average revenue per employee in stock-listed companies amounted to zł.618,800 while in the rest of businesses it equaled zł.256,500. The listed companies were also the fastest ones to react to dropping employment in the years 1998-2004 - they reduced their staff faster than other firms.

"We're still unable to measure accurately how the development of the bourse impacts GDP growth, but I think that the relationship is obvious and that we'll be able to prove it in four to five years' time," Wyżnikiewicz concluded.