Currency report: Easy week
The EUR/PLN cross didn't hit the psychological zł.4 level this week, as many expected. Stabilization on the euro-dollar market stopped the Polish currency's strengthening against the common currency. After a series of negative macroeconomic publications, the dollar returned to around the $1.22 level against the euro after rebounding from $1.20.
Inflation data (both PPI and CPI) was below market forecasts. On Friday investors saw that American imports exceed exports by more than $195 billion in the first quarter of this year. But there is no doubt that the US currency held at a nine-month peak versus the euro last week.
Going back to Europe, analysts say that when the dollar is strong and yields are high it's a pretty toxic mix for emerging markets. Fortunately the Polish currency didn't look bad at all.
The Monetary Policy Council meets on June 28-29 and most analysts expect it to lower its main rate by 25 basis points from the current 5.5 percent.
Adam Łaganowski,
Warsaw Investment Group (WGI)
Inflation data (both PPI and CPI) was below market forecasts. On Friday investors saw that American imports exceed exports by more than $195 billion in the first quarter of this year. But there is no doubt that the US currency held at a nine-month peak versus the euro last week.
Going back to Europe, analysts say that when the dollar is strong and yields are high it's a pretty toxic mix for emerging markets. Fortunately the Polish currency didn't look bad at all.
The Monetary Policy Council meets on June 28-29 and most analysts expect it to lower its main rate by 25 basis points from the current 5.5 percent.
Adam Łaganowski,
Warsaw Investment Group (WGI)
