Currency report: Referendum anxiety
Opinion is split on how the złoty will perform in the future with a pro-dollar sentiment weakening almost all emerging country currencies. There were several political concerns over the last two weeks and ahead of the French EU referendum vote on the Constitution as a rejection would undermine EMU prospects for recently joined EU countries. This is likely to undermine the złoty slightly.
The last couple of sessions have been very quiet, but the złoty and forint both ran into key supports against the euro. A 'no' vote could strengthen the dollar and weaken emerging currencies.
Polish inflation edged down to three percent in April from 3.4 percent the previous month. The central bank cut interest rates at the end of April, but has now switched back to a 'neutral' stance. The next few weeks will probably bring a 25 base point interest-rate cut in Hungary and no change in the Czech Republic, according to most analysts. Technically speaking, pro-dollar sentiment and fears over the French referendum should make the Polish currency weak.
Marcin Golik
WGI Dom Maklerski
The last couple of sessions have been very quiet, but the złoty and forint both ran into key supports against the euro. A 'no' vote could strengthen the dollar and weaken emerging currencies.
Polish inflation edged down to three percent in April from 3.4 percent the previous month. The central bank cut interest rates at the end of April, but has now switched back to a 'neutral' stance. The next few weeks will probably bring a 25 base point interest-rate cut in Hungary and no change in the Czech Republic, according to most analysts. Technically speaking, pro-dollar sentiment and fears over the French referendum should make the Polish currency weak.
Marcin Golik
WGI Dom Maklerski
