Death of political dinosaurs

The division that exists across Poland reflects in part the impact European Union membership has had on the countryside after only 16 months.

Opinion polls show countryside-based populist parties that opposed EU entry are losing out to mainstream 'city' parties in the battle for more than 10 million rural voters, who represent a third of the total electorate.

The populists' doomsday scenarios that were put forward by the far-left Self-Defense (SO) party of firebrand farmer Andrzej Lepper and the protectionist Peasants' Party (PSL) have failed to materialise.

Polish cheese, butter and meat hit the shelves of Western supermarkets from day one of accession, boosting farm exports by a third and filling farmers' pockets.

Instead of bankruptcies, around 1.5 million farms got a boost from nearly s1.5 (zł.6) billion in direct payments from the EU coffers.

"Horror stories by populists did not come true, so many rural voters may now abandon them," said Pawel Grzelak, a political analyst at the Polish Academy of Science.

"This year the rural vote will be split."

An opinion poll shows the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party catching nearly a third of the rural vote, followed by Lepper's Self-Defense and the liberal Civic Platform (PO), which is favorite to win the nationwide vote.

The once dominant Peasants' Party may get less than 10 percent of the farm vote, condemning the group, rooted in the peasant movement from the early 20th century, to political extinction.

In the run-up to EU accession the political picture looked significantly different. Support for Self-Defense and its leader Lepper was so strong in the countryside that he no longer looked like an outsider in the race to become Poland's next president.

His popularity was driven partly by fears of the EU, topped by widespread anger at the ruling left over blatant patronage and failure to curb unemployment. Anger at the left remains strong but Lepper's credibility took a hit when fears about EU membership declined, causing many farmers to look around for an alternative.

Sociologists say that even the liberals, once the bogeymen in the countryside, were gaining support because some farmers and small businesses began to see the advantages of free trade.

"The number of farmers is very large but set to drop, with those who stay in the sector becoming proper entrepreneurs," said Barbara Fedyszak-Radziejowska, an expert on rural communities. "Parties which see farmers as their primary electorate are poised for natural extinction," she concluded. (Reuters)