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Diversification is risky business

Poland's dependence on Russia to fuel its energy needs is well documented. Russia controls some 95 percent of Polish crude-oil imports and nearly 63 percent of all gas imports to Poland, a number that could rise to around 78 percent after the last compressor station on the Yamal gas pipeline through Poland comes on line later this year.

Hence, Polish authorities have been eager to show they are looking for ways to diversify Poland's energy sources. Prime Minister Belka held highly publicized talks in Libya in January at which securing Libyan oil for Polish companies was a major area of discussion. Belka's recent trip to Iraq was taken partly in an effort to secure upstream oil supplies in the Kirkuk region for Polish oil titan PKN Orlen.

"At first, we would like to be able to extract about 500,000 tonnes of oil a year," Adam Sęk, president of Nafta Polska, the government's oil holding, told Parkiet last month. "The costs of oil extraction near Kirkuk are among the lowest in the world."

Belka said he was confident Poland could secure the contracts in return for scrapping Iraq's debts to Warsaw.

But some question the government's strategy. "I'm afraid that this is more of a PR exercise than an economic one," says Aurelia Kuran-Puszkarska, president of the Polish Chamber of Liquefied Fuel. "Polish refineries have been refining Russian crude oil, which is more sulfuric, for many years. And Polish refineries have been designed to refine that crude."

PGNiG, Poland's state-owned gas monopoly, is also window-shopping. The firm has announced it is in talks that will hopefully lead to it joining a consortium of companies building the Nabucco gas pipeline through Turkey to Austria.

"We are living in such times that all diversification of supplies is very beneficial, especially in light of terror threats," PGNiG CEO Marek Kossowski told Reuters last month.

The irony is that Poland is reaching into unstable regions and even terrorist hotbeds to accomplish that diversification. Potential suppliers for the Nabucco pipeline include Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.

But many believe transporting oil and gas from some of the most dangerous places in the world would add up to a logistical nightmare.

"It would be better to search for partners - a partner who for example would buy a part of a refinery and who would have access to these fields," says Kuran-Puszkarska. Those partners could then send their finished products here. "This would be easier to organize logistically," she says.
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