Economic forecasts: Blowing in the wind

Worldwide growth and reforms are the key factors in Poland's booming economy, according to Rafał Antczak, chief economist of the PZU Group. "The reason for [Poland's] good economic situation lies at the micro level," Antczak told a meeting organized by the American Chamber of Commerce. "We are also surfing on the wave of a global growth scale. Poland should grab this chance."

Gradual and coherent bank reforms have also been crucial. "We are in the right place at the right time," argued Witold Orłowski, a former economic advisor to President Kwaśniewski, and now chief economist at PricewaterhouseCoopers. "Poland is more flexible than western states," he added. Antczak also said that Poland's image abroad is stable.

These factors give rise to some optimistic prognoses for the Polish economy this year. Figures presented by the Institute of Economy of the Polish Academy of Science last week show GDP growth of six percent for this year, along with gross wage growth of 3.8 percent, total consumption growth of 5.7 percent, import growth of 12 percent, and a rise in exports of 9.8 percent. Unemployment is expected to decrease to 12.4 percent, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Economists agree that although inflation will grow by 2.3 percent, due to further economic growth and pay rises, the złoty will remain stable.

Although the situation is good, it could always be better, noted Antczak. "Poland ranks high in investment attractiveness, but we must not forget that in making their decision investors consider other factors - for example, infrastructure," argued Jarosław Pietras, a former secretary of the Committee for European Integration.

Another crucial, though long-neglected issue in the view of the economists is political reform. "It is a pity that our governments never take the opportunity of economic growth to introduce changes," declared Andrzej Sadowski, deputy president of the Adam Smith Center. Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz from the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR) admits that any changes to make business life easier are not very probable, but he considers it an advantage that politicians have not meddled too much with the economy recently.

Although unemployment is expected to decrease further this year, it will still remain an issue. Antczak considers the problem to be structural. Among people under 25, unemployment hovers around 30 percent, and those less educated tend to seek jobs abroad. Economists remain optimistic, however. "The wind of opportunity is blowing, and we should keep the window open. The more we benefit from it, the better," Orłowski said.