Economists get a rise

The third quarter of this year brought a 3.7-percent growth in GDP, compared to 2.8 percent in Q2 and 2.1 percent in Q1.

Comparisons with the previous year's figures are difficult as in 2004 consumer spending increased due to fears connected with the country's accession to the EU. Q3 results surprised even the most optimistic economists, who, on average, had expected a 3.4 percent rise.

Experts acknowledge that the main factor contributing to the rise continues to be net exports, which made up 2.1 percent of total GDP. Another element influencing the Q3 boom was domestic demand, which increased by 1.6 percent. Private consumption grew from 1.6 percent in Q2 to 2.7 percent in Q3. What analysts are particularly happy about is that investment growth was 5.7 percent, which, with the exception of Q4 in 2004, is the best result in the last six years.

The chief economist with Citibank Handlowy, Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, says: "I share the economists' optimism. We expected the Q3 GDP [increase] to be 3.5 percent." Zajdel-Kurowska is optimistic about future growth. "I believe that domestic demand will improve, so will investments and consumption, especially due to the planned revaluation of the pension and retirement [schemes], one can already observe an increase in salaries and employment."

In September the unemployed rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month and by 1.3 percentage points year on year. In the first nine months of 2005, real salaries in the private sector grew by 0.3 percent. Zajdel-Kurowska predicts that on the basis of positive data from the beginning of October, GDP for Q4 will definitely exceed four percent.