Economists revise their Q4 growth projections

The latest batch of statistics on government tax receipts, which came below expectations in September, are seen as yet another indicator that the economic cycle has past its peak and that the slowdown is deeper than previously thought. The Market Economy Research Institute (IBnGR) has brought its forecast for Q4 down to 5.4%, as did PKO BP. The Centre for Social and Economic Analysis (CASE) is to unveil a new, downward revised projection within days. But, says Ryszard Petru of Bank BPH, what we are seeing is not an economic slowdown, but a slowing of the pace of economic growth, meaning there will be fewer nice surprises from the economy. "2007 marked the peak of the cycle and the next year will not be as good as this one," he says. Petru has reduced his own forecast for 2008 GDP growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. "It's back to normal," said Janusz Jankwoiak, chief economist at the Polish Business Roundtable. (Rzeczpospolita, p. B1) R.M.