Economy to grow by 3.5% y/y in Q2

Economists at Citi Handlowy expect Poland’s GDP growth to accelerate to 3.5% y/y in Q2 2025 from 3.2% y/y in Q1. Private consumption remains the main growth driver. While June’s industrial output and retail sales data were weaker than expected, cumulative Q2 results still outperformed last year. The preliminary GDP estimate from Statistics Poland (GUS) will be released on 13 August, with the full GDP breakdown due on 1 September.
According to Citi’s “Citi Weekly,” the modest acceleration signals steady economic momentum despite mixed monthly indicators.