Editorial: The gritty truth to Russian roulette

The more debonair characteristics of the quintessentially British spy and his array of bewildering gadgets have largely been jettisoned, in favor of the cold, calculating killer more familiar to Bond fans raised on Ian Fleming's books rather than Cubby Broccoli's films.

Russia's international image is also undergoing something of a retro refurbishment, although its leading man has been at the helm for some time and shows little enthusiasm for relinquishing the role.

The death of Alexander Litvinenko, in circumstances that John Le Carré would have no trouble fashioning into a book or two, have inflamed the conspiratorial sensibilities of much of the Western media, senses which have lain dormant since the end of the Cold War.

Peace in our time

Litvinenko's death, even if it were proven to be the work of Moscow, does not mark the beginning of a new Cold War. His demise may have taken place on British soil in highly dubious circumstances, and it may have thrown up disquieting memories of the murder of Georgi Markov, a Bulgarian defector (Markov met his maker via that most vicious of implements, the umbrella, in 1978 in London).

However, to depict it as a new Cold War, reviving the tactics used by secret agents during the 1970s and 1980s, is alarmist and disingenuous. More worryingly, it diverts attention from Russia's much more threatening and crude behavior on a number of other fronts, at home and abroad.

The real battlefront

Russia is a country in crisis, but criticizing it on the basis of tenuous, unfounded allegations is a mistake. Critics do not have to look hard to find the Putin administration wanting.

Human-rights abuses are rampant, particularly in Chechnya. Suppression of the media is frequent and extensive. An eye-wateringly wealthy elite enjoys an opulent lifestyle that would make a pre-French revolution courtier blanch, while the average Russian scrapes by on RUB6,400 (zł.707) a month (which, as Pravda pointed out in one of its more memorable reports, is two thirds of what the average Briton spends per month on his dog).

All of this is masked by a GDP growth rate of 6.4 percent. The country boasts 400,000 millionaires and 44 billionaires, but the state has moved to bring much of the country's key industries back under centralized control. According to the CIA: "Most fundamentally, Russia has made little progress in building the rule of law, the bedrock of a modern market economy."

No baby boomers

Furthermore, the country is facing serious population decline. In 2006, the CIA estimates that the population in Russia will drop by 0.37 percent.

The birth rate is 9.95 births per 1,000, but the death rate is 14.65 deaths per 1,000. In addition, HIV/AIDS is ravaging the country, a situation the Russian administration is unwilling to acknowledge, much less combat.

Energy is perhaps the one issue that makes Europeans unwilling to earn Russia's ire. Europe, including Poland, relies on Russian oil and gas - the EU relies on Russia for roughly a quarter of its crude oil supplies and fully half its gas. Gas and oil might have replaced nuclear warheads as the ace up Russia's sleeve, which it uses to taunt the EU, but the fact remains that Russia needs to sell the EU its energy, and keep its oil and energy firms thriving, just as much as the EU needs to keep buying it.

Russia depends on its energy revenues to fuel its economy, and until it finds another prime customer it will not be able to wield the political clout over the  EU that it craves, and that some commentators credit it with. It is strengthening ties in Asia, but until it can engage the booming Chinese economy the EU will remain its primary energy market. Russia may also find it a lot easier to do business with Brussels than Beijing, now and in the future.

The case of Litvinenko is the wrong rod by which to chasten Putin's Russia, when there are much more credible failures going unpunished.

Readers' comments, opinions and letters should be sent to editor@wbj.pl