17:49 31 July 2024
Erste Group Predicts Possible Rate Cut in Q2 2025
According to Erste Group, a moderate reduction in interest rates may be feasible in the second quarter of 2025. Following a spike in July 2024 inflation to 5 percent y/y, largely due to energy price deregulation, the annual inflation in Poland is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2025 and decline significantly by the third quarter.
"Assuming no major disruptions in the Middle Eastern commodity markets, inflation should peak in the first quarter of 2025 and decrease in the following quarters. A moderate rate cut by NBP is possible in the second quarter of 2025 if price trajectories avoid significant shocks," Jakub Cery, Erste Group analyst, said.
