Euro skepticism
"For the first time, standing here in front of you, I take advantage of the occasion ... to formulate precisely one of our main goals," Tusk told attendees of the Krynica Economic Forum. "Our goal [to adopt the euro] is 2011. This is our government's goal. This is a difficult but feasible task," Tusk added.
Until now, Tusk's government had resisted giving a firm date for euro adoption. After the announcement, the złoty and other Central European currencies surged.
But most experts voiced caution and skepticism - there are several difficult hurdles to overcome, including joining the ERM-2 exchange rate mechanism and remaining there for two years, keeping the budget deficit below three percent of GDP, and potentially changing Poland's Constitution to allow the European Central Bank to set monetary policy and issue money - privileges reserved for the Polish central bank under the current Constitution.
"Theoretically euro adoption is possible in 2011, but technically the probability is small," said Bank BPH economist Adam Antoniak.
"Given the economic uncertainties and distress, we find it highly unlikely that the European Central Bank and the European Commission would accept a swift Polish euro adoption," said Lars Rasmussen of Danske Bank.
"We think such a scenario [of adopting the euro in 2011] is almost impossible … Leaving aside issues connected to the calendar dates of ERM-2 and EMU [European Monetary Union] entry, we think the key obstacle for euro adoption is the fact that Poland will probably need to amend the Constitution first. However, the ruling coalition does not have a large enough majority to do this," said bank Citi Handlowy's chief economist, Piotr Kalisz, in a statement. He added that he expected euro adoption no earlier than 2015.
The latest Reuters poll of economists saw Poland joining in 2013. (Reuters)
