EY: Polish GDP will amount to 3.4% in ‘26
16:35
According to EY’s European Economic Outlook (October 2025), Poland’s GDP is expected to grow 3.3% in 2025, 3.4% in 2026, and 2.5% in 2027, outpacing much of Europe, where Germany and Italy hover near stagnation. Growth is driven by consumer spending and rising real wages, but fiscal deficits of 6.5–7% of GDP could push public debt above 70% by 2028. Inflation is forecast to fall to 2.3% in 2026, within the NBP’s target range, supported by a strong zloty and lower energy prices. EY expects interest rates to drop to 4% in early 2026, then stabilize.
The EU–US trade deal will slightly slow growth—EY estimates Poland’s GDP in 2026 will be 0.3 pp lower due to U.S. tariff hikes.
