Fertile ground

In addition, the government has triumphantly announced that more babies were born last year than in 2005. But the fact of the matter is that Poland needs to procreate if its labor force is to remain healthy

Last year, Poland experienced positive natural population growth for the first time since 2001, with an increase of around 10,000 in comparison to 2005. However, according to the Eurostat statistical office, the country is facing a demographic crisis. Eurostat's figures show that Polish women are having the lowest number of children in the EU. In 2005, the fertility rate in Poland (the average number of children per woman between the age of 15-49) was 1.23 in comparison with the EU average of 1.51. The population-replacement level is considered to be around 2.1. No European country reached that level in 2005, although France and Ireland came reasonably close, at 1.92 and 1.88, respectively.

In spite of its optimistic proclamations, the government has realized there is a problem and that serious steps need to be taken. The "baby bonus" - a one-off zł.1,000 grant for every child born, which was introduced at the end of 2005 - is simply not enough. "Only a skillfully carried out pro-family policy can halt the decline in Poland's population," says Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska, Deputy Minister of Labor responsible for women and the family.

In the family way

On March 8 (Women's Day), Kluzik-Rostkowska presented the main thrust of the government's draft family policy bill, which aims to help parents reconcile family life with their careers.

According to the draft, future parents can expect tax breaks depending on the number of children they have. Furthermore, women on maternity leave will have their insurance and retirement contributions increased during their time off and employers will not pay premiums to the Labor Fund for three years after an employee returns from maternity or paternity leave. In addition, maternity leave will be extended by eight weeks, from the current 18 and 20 weeks for the first and second child, respectively. Other plans will facilitate schooling for students with babies and improve the availability and quality of pre-schools and day-care centers, which will be free of charge and open during parents' working hours.

Addressing the problem

Experts appreciate the government's decision to recognize the seriousness of the problem. "Finally we have moved from talking to doing something," says Jacek Męcina, advisor to the board of the Polish Confederation of Private Employers (PKPP) Lewiatan. "To women, the most important thing when considering having a baby is economic stability," he states.

Męcina explains that women want to be sure they won't lose their positions after returning from maternity leave. "For example, they want to be sure they can get a special training grant after returning to work," Męcina says. He adds that tax breaks and maternity leave are important parts of the system, but claims that the best way to ensure women have economic stability is through the institution of a system of flexible working hours.

Uncertain future

Lack of economic stability seems to be the main reason for the low birth rate. "People are postponing the decision to have children because they are uncertain about tomorrow," claims Henryk Domański, head of the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN). "Until unemployment falls and the labor market becomes more flexible, we can't expect any changes," he states. The PAN expert points out that the fertility rate is lowest in CEE states that have been undergoing a difficult economic transformation. "Our birth rate is the lowest because our unemployment is the highest," Domański explains.

Research suggests he is right. The Ministry of Labor has published studies showing that Polish women want to have more children. On average, Polish mothers would like to have 2.33 children. Research by pollster CBOS shows that the high costs of maintaining a child and women's fears of losing their jobs are major disincentives to childbirth, with 67 and 62 percent of respondents, respectively, pointing to these as impediments. Around 42 percent indicated lack of state support in the process of raising the child. With pro-family policy receiving just 0.9 percent of GDP, Poland sits at the lower end of European rankings.

Foreign models

Kluzik-Rostkowska points to the success of French and Scandinavian pro-family policies. France, which experienced a negative natural growth rate at the beginning of the 20th century - much earlier than other developed countries - instituted family-oriented social policies after World War II. Following a slump in the late 1980s, fertility rates in the country have been steadily growing - from 1.66 in 1994 to 1.87 in 2000 and 1.92 in 2005. Initial figures for 2006, collected by France's National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), show that the number could have reached 2.0 last year - very close to the replacement level.

Sweden also has seen its fertility rates grow steadily, from 1.53 in 2000 to 1.66 in 2005. Denmark and Norway are among Europe's most fertile countries, with rates of 1.7 and 1.8, respectively.

But state family policies have worked in Poland as well. The last Polish baby boom, in the early 1980s, was partly due to the post-war generation having children but, as Dr Franciszek Stokowski from the Institute of Statistics and Demography at the Warsaw School of Economics explains, it was prolonged by state policy. Paid parental leave was introduced and mothers took the opportunity to have more children. "The boom ended just when inflation started, making the parental leave grants worthless," Stokowski said.

A greying nation

Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński has stated that the pro-family policy is essential to the existence of the Polish nation. Though that may sound like an exaggeration, the Central Statistical Office's (GUS) demographic prognosis states that the Polish population will shed a million people by 2020 and another million and half in the decade after. That does not even include emigration. These figures, however, may only be the tip of the iceberg. "The main problem is not the fact that the population is decreasing, but that fewer children are being born while the population is aging," Stokowski warns.

GUS predicts that in 2012, there will be around 28 retirees for every 100 people of working age. In 2005, this figure was 24. By 2030, the number could grow to 46, meaning that for every two working people there would be one pensioner to support.

"This is a great threat to the whole social security system," says Męcina. He points out that although a reform of the pension system has decreased future pensioners' dependence on the structure of the population, some remnants of the old system linger, as seen in early retirements in certain industries. "The change in the demographic structure means that they will be a heavy burden on the system's shoulders," Męcina says.

Fewer hands to work - as well as the possibility of continuing emigration - does not only mean that employers will have more problems finding workers, it could also affect the level of foreign investments in Poland. "If Poland lacks an abundance of young, cheap and skilled labor, it will no longer be a magnet for investors," Męcina predicts.

Baby steps

Although the Warsaw School of Economics' Stokowski thinks that the government's decision is "a step in the right direction," he fears that any pro-family policy will have only short-term effects. He claims that people quickly get used to new benefits and these won't work in the long run. "The demographic situation has to be monitored all the time and up-to date decisions need to be made in response to trends," Stokowski opines.

Domański doesn't think that any long-term change in the birth rate can be expected while Poland remains one of the poorest countries in the EU. He also sees an urgent need to change the state's budget policy. "If the state is spending money on retirement and disability pensions, then it will be spending less on family policy," he says, adding that even if the government's incentives work, we can't expect a baby boom. "In the developed world people tend to think more about their careers and themselves rather than raising kids," Domański sums up.

But Stokowski says that developed countries don't need a baby boom. "A simple replacement fertility rate would be enough," he suggests.