19:28 15 September 2022
Fitch downgrades Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 3.9%
Fitch downgraded Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 3.9% from 5.2%, and for 2023 to 1.5% from 3.0%, the agency said in a report. Fitch expects the Monetary Policy Council to end the cycle of rate hikes at 7.50% and cut rates by 50 bps by the end of 2023.
"We now expect Poland's economy to enter a technical recession in Q3 and stagnate in Q4. (...) We are lowering our growth forecast for the current year to 3.9% from 5.2%, and halving our estimates for next year to 1.5% (...) Given inflation at 16.1% in August and interest rates 450 bps higher than at the beginning of the year, we expect consumption to be contained," – the agency states.
According to Fitch, inflation in Poland will peak at around 20% in early 2023 and then start to decline.
Source: PAP
