Fitch expects 3 interest rates cuts in 2024 and one in 2025

Fitch Ratings predicts three interest rate cuts this year, followed by another 50 basis points cut in 2025, reducing the main interest rate to 4.5%. Malgorzata Krzywicka, Associate Director, EMEA Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings, stated expectations during the "Credit Outlook Warsaw 2024" conference. Inflation is forecasted to stay elevated, with CPI at 5% by the end of 2024 and 4% by the end of 2025, remaining distant from the central bank's target. Considering persistent high inflation, there's a perceived risk of prolonged monetary policy tightening in Poland, also influenced by political considerations regarding the central bank.

The Monetary Policy Council has held rates steady since November, following a 25 basis points cut in October, and a 75 basis points cut in September. In December 2023, annual consumer inflation was 6.2%, with a yearly average of 11.4% in 2023, down from 14.4% the previous year.

Source: inwestycje.pl