Fitch lowers Poland's GDP growth forecast in '22 and '23 to 3.3%
22:55
The Fitch rating agency lowered Poland's GDP growth forecast in 2022 to 3.3 percent from 4.3 percent, and in 2023 to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent, according to the agency's report. According to Fitch, the MPC will raise the reference rate to 5.0% and will keep it at this level at least until the end of 2023.
"Just before the outbreak of the war, data from Poland showed an economically strong end of 2021 with a GDP growth of 1.7 percent quarterly. However, war is likely to affect business confidence and increase uncertainty, resulting in lower domestic investment. Inflation shock will also lower real incomes,” Fitch stated.
“When geopolitical tensions ease, the zloty should strengthen slightly, which will allow inflation to be curbed in 2023 as oil prices fall. In response to the growing inflationary pressure, the NBP raised the main rate to 3.5%. in March and signaled a further tightening in the following months. President Glapiński suggested that rates could rise above 4-4.5%, despite the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine. Our forecast assumes a target rate of 5.0% later in 2022," it added.
