Frayed nerves in Brussels
The referenda in the 10 European Union applicant countries due to join next year are supposed to be formalities, but it doesn't help if coalition governments crumble at crucial moments.
And with a Polish poll on EU membership planned for June, Prime Minister Leszek Miller should be organising his government's public relations campaign, not shoring up yawning chasms in his administration.
But there's nothing new in the EU, and if anyone understands anything, it is the fact that national politics will always get in the way of European development if at all possible. It is a given that an impending general election or major cabinet reshuffle can adversely effect the prospects of agreement at the EU level on anything from farm subsidies to food labelling.
And national administrations are perfectly happy to help each other out by putting controversial EU debates, policy plans and votes on hold until a sensitive political moment has passed. Many a time the EU machinery has been thrown into neutral while a national storm passes - but normally, the rocky governments requiring such understanding are, by definition, those running countries which are part of the EU.
But Poland is not yet in the EU, and her neighbours in the West can only look on, helpless, as the wheels wobble on the Warsaw governmental wagons.
Let's be ruthless here: the fate of Miller's coalition is of less concern in Brussels than the impact the cracks in the coalition might have on public support for EU entry. The vote, if it comes to it, seems in the bag, with a majority in favour. The real issue is a low turnout, nullifying a public poll and making EU membership a parliamentary matter.
"Miller's got the country this far towards enlargement; it would be a disaster if his domestic policy problems tipped the balance the wrong way on Europe now," said one EU official, nursing badly chewed nails.
Magnify the nail-biting a million-fold and you have a sense of how the approaching referenda across central and eastern Europe are affecting sleep patterns among the high and mighty in Brussels. Malta's expected "yes" vote for EU membership at the weekend has not calmed nerves much. The Malta poll was more or less guaranteed to produce the right result, which is why the Maltese ballot was timed to be the first among the applicant states. The idea was to encourage others that it really is safe to jump into the EU pool.
The idea in Poland is to maintain enough public interest in the EU project to get that vital minimum 50% participation in June.
"There is no reason to worry about the referendum," said government spokesman Michał Tober last week.
But in Brussels, reason has nothing to do with it, and some very highly placed executive fingers are staying tightly crossed.
Geoff Meade is the European Union editor of the Press Association.
And with a Polish poll on EU membership planned for June, Prime Minister Leszek Miller should be organising his government's public relations campaign, not shoring up yawning chasms in his administration.
But there's nothing new in the EU, and if anyone understands anything, it is the fact that national politics will always get in the way of European development if at all possible. It is a given that an impending general election or major cabinet reshuffle can adversely effect the prospects of agreement at the EU level on anything from farm subsidies to food labelling.
And national administrations are perfectly happy to help each other out by putting controversial EU debates, policy plans and votes on hold until a sensitive political moment has passed. Many a time the EU machinery has been thrown into neutral while a national storm passes - but normally, the rocky governments requiring such understanding are, by definition, those running countries which are part of the EU.
But Poland is not yet in the EU, and her neighbours in the West can only look on, helpless, as the wheels wobble on the Warsaw governmental wagons.
Let's be ruthless here: the fate of Miller's coalition is of less concern in Brussels than the impact the cracks in the coalition might have on public support for EU entry. The vote, if it comes to it, seems in the bag, with a majority in favour. The real issue is a low turnout, nullifying a public poll and making EU membership a parliamentary matter.
"Miller's got the country this far towards enlargement; it would be a disaster if his domestic policy problems tipped the balance the wrong way on Europe now," said one EU official, nursing badly chewed nails.
Magnify the nail-biting a million-fold and you have a sense of how the approaching referenda across central and eastern Europe are affecting sleep patterns among the high and mighty in Brussels. Malta's expected "yes" vote for EU membership at the weekend has not calmed nerves much. The Malta poll was more or less guaranteed to produce the right result, which is why the Maltese ballot was timed to be the first among the applicant states. The idea was to encourage others that it really is safe to jump into the EU pool.
The idea in Poland is to maintain enough public interest in the EU project to get that vital minimum 50% participation in June.
"There is no reason to worry about the referendum," said government spokesman Michał Tober last week.
But in Brussels, reason has nothing to do with it, and some very highly placed executive fingers are staying tightly crossed.
Geoff Meade is the European Union editor of the Press Association.
