From snowball to avalanche
by Chris Mularczyk
The snowball effect seems to be happening. The European Union referenda throughout central and eastern Europe are producing the desired results. Each one seems to be returning a healthier majority than the previous one. Only the Maltese referendum was close, but on a very high turnout.
It now looks as if the people in central and eastern Europe have decided that the EU issue has nothing to do with their domestic political squabbles and that it is a chance for a better life for their children. More importantly, it is an opportunity to definitively take themselves out of the orbit of interest of their one-time masters in Moscow.
What has brought this about?
1. The total lack of confidence in domestic institutions and leaders has led to a rose-colored-spectacles syndrome for many voters in looking at EU institutions and leaders. In-depth polling research shows that we have far more confidence in EU institutions than our own and that we expect entry into the EU to gradually improve life in the country.
2. The Iraq war. It actually is working for EU entry regardless of which side of the fence you were on at the start of the conflict. For those opposed to the war, the EU seems all the more attractive because so many peoples and governments of the EU states opposed the war. For those in favor of the war, Poland's stance gives them renewed confidence that the country can punch its weight in Europe and preserve its identity. The fact that Poland felt free to disagree with both Berlin and Paris is helping this viewpoint to grow.
3. Media saturation is working. It cannot be a matter of pride for a country that wants to be regarded as a democracy that the No camp is being denied any access whatsoever to TV, radio and major newspapers and magazines. But that is the objective reality. The No camp is now more than ever reliant on Radio Maryja and its newspaper Nasz Dziennik. Those are preaching to the antis anyway and not reaching many undecided voters.
4. The Catholic Church has not been as forward in supporting the EU in Poland as it was in Lithuania or Hungary. But it has been made plain what the bishops want and, more importantly, what the pope expects. These facts are stifling the anti-European clerics and even Radio Maryja itself.
5. The PSL has come out broadly in favor of the EU. This matters to an important electoral niche - the farmers. It must be noted that in this group the PSL still outvotes Samoobrona in every election and every opinion poll.
6. Samoobrona itself has decided not to pursue an openly anti-EU stance. It has chosen instead to argue that the deal Poland got to join the EU was badly negotiated and that this can be put right in the future. Hardly an incentive to vote No.
7. Both the PO and PiS have done their best in the last few days to decouple the referendum from the "Miller government" issue. They have done so seeing that the electorate itself was more than willing to buy that message. Both the PO and PiS do not want to act as "killjoys." They want their pro-EU electorates to have the chance to claim victory come June 8.
8. While the No camp is not getting access to the media and the referendum law was adopted by flouting parliamentary procedure, the LPR is afraid to do the politically sensible thing and to call for a boycott. It fears that some of its votes would be taken over by those, like Gabriel Janowski and Jan Łopuszański, who have broken away from it. Calling for a No vote would make sense because if successful, it would at least enable the No camp to claim a victory of sorts and to contribute to the likely collapse of the Miller government.
The only bit of excitement left in this referendum is the turnout. That is, of course, because of the domestic implications. If there is a 50%-plus turnout, then Miller has a fighting chance of surviving. If it dips under the 50% mark, he is a goner. The PSL and PiS will force him out as the price for approving the accession treaty in the Sejm, where a two-thirds majority will be required. The European snowball would then turn into an avalanche sweeping Miller out of office.
