Getting the vote

With only two weeks left to go to the European Union referendum, the 50% voter turnout required to make the result binding still looks iffy at best, and voter indifference could invalidate the referendum.

On Tuesday the Constitutional Tribunal will rule whether the plebiscite will be placed in parliament's hands should the required voter threshold fail to materialize, a contingency plan that would allow the referendum to be approved by a two-thirds majority in both houses.

The backup plan is necessary despite the intense last-ditch efforts of government leaders to rally the electorate to vote. President Aleksander Kwaśniewski has placed himself at the forefront of the crusade for EU membership. From his speeches in the capital to his tour of major cities across the county, he has been constant in his efforts to urge people to cast Yes ballots. Even the first lady has gotten in on the act, with her face adorning billboards supporting a Yes vote.

Prime Minister Leszek Miller, meanwhile, is still throwing his support behind the referendum, although his credibility has been tarnished by political scandals. (Some voters may even refrain from casting ballots, convinced that a vote for the EU would equate a vote of approval for Miller.)

The pope has also stated publicly that he backs the country's integration into the union. European Commissioner Romano Prodi even visited the country to urge Poles to vote for membership. "The referendum will be one of the most important events in your history," he told the media after a meeting with Miller last week.

But will voters heed their entreaties? Maybe, maybe not. Surveys of citizens who intend to vote in the referendum (about 64% of total eligible voters) still indicate that around 70% will cast Yes ballots. However, voter turnouts in plebiscites in a couple of other accession countries came close to not meeting quorum. Slovakia, which held its EU referendum over a two-day period earlier this month (in an effort to ensure that enough voters would cast ballots), had a 52 % turnout, just notching above the 50% threshold, though 93% of those who voted endorsed EU membership.

Such a close call serves as a red flag for the Polish referendum. Slovakia had a contingency plan that the vote would pass to parliament should enough voters not turn out. Yet the fact that Slovaks knew that their parliament would push through the referendum anyway may have caused some voters to stay at home. The same could happen here as voters might opt for their country dachas or local parks over the June 7-8 weekend instead of the polls.

Therefore it is likely that the Polish vote will go to parliament. Despite the arguments of the anti-EU camp that the country's constitution does not allow parliament to decide referendums, the Constitutional Tribunal will probably rule that deputies and senators can ratify accession as there are just as many credible arguments on the other side. If the tribunal rejects the proposal to allow parliament to vote on the issue, the country would have no second chance at passing the referendum should the popular vote fail to attain a majority. We would then have to wait until the next enlargement round in 2007. Still, given the disunity in parliament over the EU accession issue, a vote in the two houses would be a tight one, though there's little doubt that the referendum would not be ratified.

Too much is at stake not to approve EU membership.