Growing desperation at Treasury
The state of progress on new privatization deals suggests that the only way to approach the target is to offload the minority stakes that the Treasury still holds in a number of privatized companies. Indeed, it is such 'partial privatization' deals that dominate the list, published by the ministry last month, of over 200 companies up for sale this year. These include some of the country's largest firms, from the ill-fated Orlen to Telekomunikacja Polska (TP SA) and KGHM, a copper mining giant.
Of the zł.850 million revenues raised this year, as much as zł.832 million, or nearly 97 percent of the total, has come from the sale of a third installment of stock in the Silesian Energy Plant (GZE) to Vattenfall, a Swedish energy powerhouse.
"Should it turn out that the debt to GDP ratio breaks the 55 percent threshold because of a failure to reach the target... a witch-hunt will begin," Kaniewski said at a recent press conference. "That is why we are trying to get as close to it as possible." The ministry's growing desperation is seen to lead to trepidation, as shown by the constant changes of plans to sell the remaining 3.97 percent stake in TP SA.
The most obvious way to proceed would be to make a sale to France Telecom (FT), the strategic investor, which currently holds around 48 percent in consortium with Kulczyk Holding. FT is, however, reluctant to go ahead with the deal, as it would prefer to buy out Kulczyk prior to the deal. According to a source close to the deal, France Telecom offered to buy options for the stock, which it would then be able to realize after the Kulczyk deal. That would mean that the full proceeds from the sale would be deferred, representing a major drawback for Kaniewski's plans. The expected price of the TP SA stock held by the Treasury is around zł.860 million, or nearly 10 perent of the target for the year.
In consequence, the ministry has recently started making noises about the stock being placed on the market. Michał Marczak, an analyst at DI BRE Bank brokerage, says that now would be a good time for such a move. The market has been hungry for shares and the success of the issue of a two percent stake in Kompania Węglowa, a coal company, bodes well for the possible TP SA offering.
Marczak says another reason why the offering is likely within the next few months is that the government is under pressure to finally liberalize the fixed-line market, which would depress the price of TP SA stock.
Of the zł.850 million revenues raised this year, as much as zł.832 million, or nearly 97 percent of the total, has come from the sale of a third installment of stock in the Silesian Energy Plant (GZE) to Vattenfall, a Swedish energy powerhouse.
"Should it turn out that the debt to GDP ratio breaks the 55 percent threshold because of a failure to reach the target... a witch-hunt will begin," Kaniewski said at a recent press conference. "That is why we are trying to get as close to it as possible." The ministry's growing desperation is seen to lead to trepidation, as shown by the constant changes of plans to sell the remaining 3.97 percent stake in TP SA.
The most obvious way to proceed would be to make a sale to France Telecom (FT), the strategic investor, which currently holds around 48 percent in consortium with Kulczyk Holding. FT is, however, reluctant to go ahead with the deal, as it would prefer to buy out Kulczyk prior to the deal. According to a source close to the deal, France Telecom offered to buy options for the stock, which it would then be able to realize after the Kulczyk deal. That would mean that the full proceeds from the sale would be deferred, representing a major drawback for Kaniewski's plans. The expected price of the TP SA stock held by the Treasury is around zł.860 million, or nearly 10 perent of the target for the year.
In consequence, the ministry has recently started making noises about the stock being placed on the market. Michał Marczak, an analyst at DI BRE Bank brokerage, says that now would be a good time for such a move. The market has been hungry for shares and the success of the issue of a two percent stake in Kompania Węglowa, a coal company, bodes well for the possible TP SA offering.
Marczak says another reason why the offering is likely within the next few months is that the government is under pressure to finally liberalize the fixed-line market, which would depress the price of TP SA stock.
