GUS raises population forecast

The latest edition of the demographic forecast issued by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) sees Poland’s population at 37.2 million in 2030. This projection is higher than those issued by GUS in earlier years. In 2003 the office expected that the number of Poles would shrink to 35.7 million in 2030 and in the 2007 forecast the figure was 36.8 million. The differences come from differences in assumptions for the forecasts, professor Irena Kotowska from the Warsaw School of Economics told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna. For example, older projections are based on a lower fertility rate. In 2003 it was at 1.222 and by 2006 it grew to 1.267. This means that more children were born in Poland and at the same time death rates declined. “This was not fully estimated in the 2004 or in 2007,” said Piotr Szukalski from Łódź University.