GUS reports after a good H1 growth will slightly taper in H2

The first half of the year turned out to be very good for the economy. According to Polish Official Statistics (GUS), industrial production was up 17.6% as compared to the same period last year, while retail sale rose by 12.4% and exports were higher by 34%. GUS president Tadeusz Troczyński pointed out that the only sectors that did not develop were construction and the job market, as in June unemployment was still 19.5%. Analysts say that economic growth in the second quarter was around 6% compared to 6.9% in Q1. However, projections for the rest of the year are not so optimistic. "The situation will calm down, Q3 will be the weakest: GDP growth will fall to 4.3%. In Q4 it will rise to about 5%," said Maciej Krzak, Bank Handlowy's main economist. Exports will still be the economy’s main engine, and it will further develop due to demand for Polish food in the EU. There are also hopes for foreign investments, attracted by better laws and a more peaceful political stage. According to experts, the złoty will continue to strengthen and inflation will reach peak at 4.5-5% in July. (Puls Biznesu, p. 5) D.W.