H2 2021 decisive for scale of GDP rebound: economists
02:00
The results of retail sales and construction and assembly production for February were weaker than expected. The re-introduced lockdowns and announcements of further tightening transfer the dependence of the implementation of the current GDP growth forecasts for 2021 to the second half of the year.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales (in constant prices) fell by 3.1 percent y/y in February 2021. In monthly terms, an increase of 3.5 percent was recorded. After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, retail sales in constant prices in February 2021 were 5.3 percent higher than in January 2021. In February 2021, the deepest decrease in retail sales (in constant prices) compared to the corresponding period 2020 was recorded by units from the 'other' group (by 16.6 percent as compared to an increase of 3.8 percent in the previous year). Significantly lower sales were also observed in the groups 'solid, liquid and gaseous fuels' (by 14.8 percent) and 'pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment' (by 13.5 percent). The highest increase in sales was shown by entities trading in textiles, clothing, and footwear (by 12.9 percent).
According to the GUS, construction and assembly production (realized by construction enterprises employing more than nine people) decreased in February 2021 by 16.9 percent y/y. In monthly terms, it increased by 5.5 percent. After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, construction and assembly production was also lower by 16.9 percent.
According to economists, the visible, improving trend in private consumption in the seasonally adjusted data in February may be halted due to new restrictions covering the entire country. Some economists believe that card data show that March did not bring any measurable improvement in consumer purchasing activity.
(ISBnews)
