High inflation more dangerous than a temporary slowdown
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Central banks of developed countries have been changing their approach significantly for about six months. First, they abandoned the rhetoric that high inflation is temporary – and now they are announcing a fairly rapid normalization of monetary policy. This is especially visible in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, a little less in the euro area. The main goal is to control high inflation and prevent it from entering the economy for longer. In the short term, these measures should not be harmful to the economic situation. In 2023, on the other hand, the effect of monetary policy tightening will be more visible in the world. Especially in the United States and to a lesser extent in the euro area. Such a reaction from central banks may have side effects in the form of some cooling down of the economic situation. However, it should be remembered that high inflation is a factor much more dangerous than a temporary slowdown.
"We assume that in 2022 the Polish economy will grow at a rate of 4.5 percent – that is, it will only grow slightly weaker than in 2021. For 2021, we estimate the GDP rate at 5.9-6 percent," Rafał Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank Śląski, predicted.
