Inaccurate demographics predictions a warning to real estate
A 1992 World Bank forecast projected that Poland’s population would reach about 44.1 mln by 2025, far above today’s estimates. Even an alternative measure based on administrative “signs of life” puts the 2025 population at about 38.8 mln. The forecast largely missed the sharp decline in fertility after 1990. The World Bank assumed Poland’s fertility rate would remain around 2.1 children per woman, while a 1992 UN projection expected it to stay above 2.0 through 2025. Similar overestimates affected other Central and Eastern European countries.
Lithuania was projected to have 4.4 mln people in 2025, about 1.5 mln more than its actual population, while Moldova was forecast at 5.8 mln but has only about 2.4 mln residents in government-controlled areas.
