18:23 2 January 2024
Inflation expected to decline to 5.5% by end-2024
Economists forecast a consumer inflation rate of 5.5% y/y at the end of 2024, down from 6.6% in November 2023. The prime interest rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points at the beginning of the year, reaching 5.75% by the end of 2023. The projections by 14 analytical centers suggest a potential decrease in inflation, aligning with the central bank's target of 2.5% +/- 1 percentage point by 2026.
However, uncertainties surrounding government actions on VAT for food and protective measures against rising energy costs make predictions challenging. Analysts believe the National Bank of Poland will resume monetary easing in 2024, with the main interest rate dropping to 5.25%. Most expect the Monetary Policy Council not to consider rate cuts in the first half of the year, potentially adjusting after summer.
Source: ISBnews
