Inflation's descent to 3.5% in 2024 under question: expert

The latest NBP projection shows that we will be facing double-digit inflation later this year and next, and by the end of 2024, we will approach the band of permissible fluctuations of the inflation target. As Prof. Stanislaw Gomulka, chief economist of the BCC, points out, it is not sure that this level will be reached soon. Still, he considers the current policy of the Monetary Policy Council to be much more realistic than it was for most of last year. Rate hikes are not the only tool available to it.

"Inflation will remain high in the second half of this year and next year. A change is not expected until 2024. In this respect, we differ between the NBP and the budget assumptions of the Ministry of Finance, which were built based on the assessment in the spring of this year," Prof. Stanislaw Gomulka, the BCC's chief economist and former deputy finance minister, said. 

"The NBP predicts a strong decline in inflation in 2024 to a level not far from the inflation target but assumes a continuation of high double-digit inflation not only this year but also next year because the interest rate hike that took place recently has a restraining effect on inflation after three-four quarters," he added.

(Newseria)